A Year-End Analysis
I’ve been publishing monthly Dallas-Fort Worth employment updates since spring. What started as a way to help clients understand the shifting labor market turned into something bigger: a real-time chronicle of a year that defied easy explanation.
The short version? Job growth dropped 23% between March and July. Unemployment climbed from 3.5% to 4.4%. Healthcare absorbed talent at record pace while professional services shed positions month after month, and then, just as we headed into Q4, the federal government shut down and took our employment data with it.
This is my attempt to make sense of it all: what the numbers told us, what the data gap means, and what employers should be thinking about heading into 2026.
Six Months of Slowing Growth
In March, Dallas-Fort Worth was still riding momentum from 2024. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 56,100 jobs added year-over-year, a 1.3% growth rate that beat the national average. We ranked second among major metros for absolute job growth, trailing only New York.
Two months later, the cracks showed. May came in at 46,800 jobs, a 1.1% rate that merely matched the national average. We’d lost nearly 10,000 jobs worth of annual momentum without anyone really noticing.
By summer, the deceleration was undeniable:
| Month | Jobs Added (YoY) | Growth Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| March | 56,100 | 1.3% | — |
| May | 46,800 | 1.1% | -9,300 |
| June | 43,600 | 1.0% | -3,200 |
| July | 43,300 | 1.0% | -300 |
By July, our metro had 4,292,600 total nonfarm jobs. We’d lost nearly 13,000 jobs worth of annual growth momentum in four months, and the rate had flatlined at 1.0%. The question wasn’t whether we’d slowed down. It was why, and whether it would continue.
The Unemployment Story
While job growth was decelerating, unemployment was moving in the opposite direction. The climb was steady and persistent: 3.5% in April, 3.7% in May, 3.8% in June, 4.0% in July, and then 4.4% by August.Unemployment data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), sourced from BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics.
That August number caught my attention. At 4.4%, Dallas-Fort Worth sat above the national rate of 4.3% for the first time in years. The July-to-August jump of 0.4 percentage points was unusually sharp.
The county-level data told a more nuanced story:
- Denton County held the tightest at 3.8%
- Collin County came in at 3.9%
- Tarrant County registered 4.0%
- Dallas County showed the most slack at 4.1%
For employers, this spread matters. If you’re hiring in Frisco or McKinney, you’re fishing in a tighter pond than someone recruiting in Dallas or Irving. Geography has always mattered here, but in 2025, the gaps widened.
A Tale of Two Markets
The aggregate numbers obscure what was really a story of dramatic divergence. Some sectors couldn’t hire fast enough. Others couldn’t stop cutting.
Where the Jobs Went
Education and Health Services dominated hiring all year, adding 16,700 positions at a 3.3% growth rate. Healthcare systems, clinics, and educational institutions absorbed talent at nearly double the pace of any other sector. If you were a nurse, medical technician, or healthcare administrator in 2025, you had options.
Government added 12,000 jobs at 2.6% growth. Trade, Transportation, and Utilities contributed another 8,000 positions. Construction stayed solid with 5,300 new jobs.
Where They Disappeared
Professional and Business Services lost 7,800 jobs by July, a 1.0% contraction that deepened month after month. This is the sector that includes consulting, marketing, IT services, accounting, and administrative roles. The decline started in spring and never really stopped.
For those of us who specialize in placing accounting, administrative, and customer service professionals, this created an unusual situation. Candidates who would have had multiple offers 18 months ago are now genuinely available. They’re being thoughtful about their next move, but they’re open to conversations in ways they simply weren’t before.
Manufacturing also contracted, losing 2,500 positions. Smaller numbers, but the trend was consistent.
One Clear Advantage
Here’s something that got lost in the deceleration narrative: Dallas-Fort Worth’s inflation rate sat at just 1.9% through September, compared to 3.0% nationally.
That gap matters more than most employers realize. Workers’ paychecks stretch further here than in other major metros. For hiring managers, it means less pressure on wage increases. For recruiting, it’s a genuine selling point when talking to candidates considering offers from companies in higher-cost markets.
What the Data Gap Taught Us
When the federal shutdown hit in October, I initially saw it as a problem. No BLS data meant no monthly update. No benchmarks. No way to tell clients with certainty whether the market was still softening or starting to stabilize.
Two months later, I’ve come to see it differently. The data gap didn’t create uncertainty. It revealed how much uncertainty was always there, masked by our confidence in numbers that were themselves delayed, revised, and incomplete.
Here’s what I mean: the BLS employment data we relied on was already 4-6 weeks old by the time we saw it. The unemployment figures got revised constantly. And none of it captured what was actually happening in specific industries, specific roles, specific salary ranges.
The shutdown forced employers to do something they probably should have been doing all along: triangulating from multiple sources. Talking to recruiters and staffing partners who see hiring patterns in real time. Paying attention to how long roles stay open. Noticing when candidates who would have ghosted six months ago are now returning calls.
That’s not a replacement for good federal data. We need the BLS back at full capacity, but it’s a reminder that the numbers were always just one input, not the whole picture.
Looking Ahead to 2026
I won’t pretend to know exactly what’s coming. But after tracking this market all year, here’s what I’d tell any employer planning their 2026 hiring:
- The professional services talent window is real, but it won’t last forever. If you’ve been struggling to find experienced accountants, finance professionals, administrative staff, or customer service leaders, this is likely your best shot in years. The sector’s contraction put good people on the market. They’re being selective, but they’re there. When hiring picks back up, that window closes.
- Healthcare hiring isn’t slowing down. If you’re competing for healthcare-adjacent roles, including medical billing, patient services, and health administration, budget for a fight. The 16,700-job surge in Education and Health Services reflects structural demand that isn’t going away.
- Geography is strategy. The spread between Denton County’s 3.8% unemployment and Dallas County’s 4.1% creates different recruiting realities. If you can offer flexibility on location or remote work, you can tap talent pools across the entire metro.
- Build in flexibility. When you can’t predict market conditions three months out, the ability to scale up or down matters more than the perfect hiring plan. Some of our clients have shifted toward more temp-to-hire arrangements specifically because they want to see how Q1 develops before making permanent commitments.
The Bottom Line
Dallas-Fort Worth’s 2025 was a year of transition. Strong momentum gave way to a sustained plateau. Unemployment crept from historic lows to above the national average. Healthcare boomed while professional services contracted. And then the data stopped, leaving us to navigate Q4 and beyond without the usual guideposts.
What didn’t stop was business. Companies kept hiring. Candidates kept interviewing. Deals kept getting done. The market kept moving, even when we couldn’t measure it precisely.
After 25 years placing people in accounting, administrative, call center, customer service, and executive roles across this metro, I’ve learned that the fundamentals matter more than the monthly numbers. Good employers find good people. Good candidates find good opportunities. The data helps, but it’s never been the whole story.
If you’re trying to make sense of hiring in this environment, I’m happy to share what we’re seeing on the ground. Sometimes a conversation is worth more than a spreadsheet.
A Note of Gratitude
Before I close out this year-end report, I want to take a moment to say thank you.
2025 was unpredictable. Through all of it, our clients, candidates, and community partners showed up. You trusted us with your hiring challenges. You referred colleagues our way. You read these monthly updates and told me they helped you make sense of what was happening. That means more than I can express.
This year also marked a personal milestone: in February, we celebrated 25 years of serving the Dallas business community. A quarter century of matching great people with great companies. When I started this office, I couldn’t have imagined the relationships we’d build or the thousands of careers we’d help launch. Twenty-five years later, we’re still here, still doing work we love, still grateful for every client.
To mark that anniversary, we wanted to do something meaningful. After a summer of nominations from the community, we chose to partner with Ally’s Wish, a North Texas nonprofit that grants final wishes to terminally ill mothers with young children.
If you haven’t heard of Ally’s Wish, here’s what they do: when a young mom is facing a terminal diagnosis, they help her create one last memory with her family. Sometimes it’s a Disney trip. Sometimes it’s a birthday party on the beach. Sometimes it’s having her blog published as a book her children can hold onto forever. Each wish costs between $5,000 and $8,000, and right now, they have a three-year waitlist of moms waiting for theirs.
We’ve partnered with Ally’s Wish for the next five years to help shorten that waitlist.
If you’re looking for a way to make a difference this season, I’d encourage you to learn more at allyswish.org. Every donation helps a mom leave behind more than memories.
Here’s to a meaningful close to 2025 and a hopeful start to 2026. Thank you for being part of our story.
Amy Linn
PrideStaff Dallas Strategic Partner
(972) 661-1616
alinn@pridestaff.com